Spatial trends and archetype mapping of shooting performance in the NBA

DURMUŞ T.

Journal of Sports Sciences, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/02640414.2026.2722760
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Sports Sciences
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, BIOSIS, CINAHL, Educational research abstracts (ERA), EMBASE, MEDLINE, SportDiscus, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest)
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: cluster analysis, NBA, offensive efficiency, shot distribution, spatial analysis
  • Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aimed to examine spatial trends in field goal attempts and shooting efficiency in the NBA from 2015–2016 to 2024–2025 seasons and to identify offensive shooting archetypes based on shot location profiles. A total of 11,979 NBA regular season games were analyzed across five court zones: Restricted Area, In the Paint (Non-RA), Mid Range, Corner 3 pointers, and Above the Break 3 pointers. Temporal patterns were visualized using LOESS smoothing; proportional differences in shot distribution were tested using Aligned Rank Transform (ART) ANOVA, and offensive profiles were classified using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. ART ANOVA showed a significant main effect of shot type (p <.001, η2p = 0.86) and a significant shot type × season interaction (p <.001, η2p = 0.44) indicating that shot distributions changed across zones. PCA showed that the first two components explained 97.48% of total variance. Clustering classified seasons into Paint Focused, Balanced and 3-Point Heavy profiles, indicating a progressive shift toward perimeter oriented offensive structures. These findings suggest a league wide reconfiguration of shooting profiles in the NBA, characterized by greater emphasis on perimeter oriented shot distributions and reduced reliance on mid range attempts.