Measuring the long-term impact of wind, run-of-river, solar renewable energy alternatives on market clearing prices

GÖKGÖZ F., Yücel Ö.

RENEWABLE ENERGY, vol.241, 2025 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 241
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122292
  • Journal Name: RENEWABLE ENERGY
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, DIALNET, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: CCR, DOLS, Financial modelling, FMOLS, Quantile regression
  • Ankara University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study uses fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegrating regressions (CCR), and quantile regression to investigate the long-term association of solar, wind and run-of-river technologies with market clearing prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. The models are applied individually for each hour from January 2019 to December 2023. The quantile regression analysis covers a total of 9 quantiles. The findings show that wind and run-of-river technologies exhibit a negative long-term relation with market clearing prices (MCP). This influence is highest at the lower and upper quantiles. Regarding solar energy, there is a negative association with MCP during noon, when sunlight intensity is highest. Throughout other hours, solar generation displays both negative and positive coefficients across various quantiles. The overall long-term association is stronger for run-of-river technology, followed by wind and solar technologies. The main takeaway for policymakers is that if there is an adequate generation, renewable energy support incentives benefit the day-ahead market. The policymakers should consider additional support mechanisms, particularly those not directly tied to price caps, to encourage solar technologies.