Quantifying the effects of ageing on the composition of government spending

ŞEN H., Kaya A.

Policy Studies, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/01442872.2026.2654505
  • Dergi Adı: Policy Studies
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Criminal Justice Abstracts, Educational research abstracts (ERA), Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: EU member states, fixed effects, GMM estimation, government spending, Population ageing
  • Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This article examines the effects of population ageing on the composition of government spending in 25 European Union member states from 1995 to 2023. Empirical evidence indicates that demographic ageing leads to shifts in government spending priorities. In particular, government spending tends to increase on social protection, general public services, health, and defence, while decreasing on housing and community amenities, environmental protection, and education. These results suggest that demographic ageing contributes to a reallocation of government spending toward age-related functions, accompanied by relative reductions in other areas. Overall, the findings highlight the potential structural implications of population ageing for fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity, emphasizing the importance of public policies that are adaptable to long-term demographic changes.