A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19

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DEMİRCİ E.

Gazi University Journal of Science, cilt.36, sa.3, ss.1302-1309, 2023 (ESCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 36 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.35378/gujs.1096827
  • Dergi Adı: Gazi University Journal of Science
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1302-1309
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Basic reproduction, Epidemic model, Number, Stability
  • Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a better understanding of the spread of SARS-COV2. As of December 2019, several mathematical models have been developed to explain how SARS-COV2 spreads within populations, and proposed models have evolved as more is learned about the dynamics of the outbreak. In this study, we propose a new mathematical model that includes demographic characteristics of the population. Social isolation and vaccination are also taken into account in the model. Besides transmission arising from intercourse with undiagnosed infected persons, we also consider transmission by contact with the exposed group. In this study, after the model is established, the basic reproduction number is calculated and local stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium is given. Finally, we give numerical simulations for the proposed model.