Future-proof scenarios and risk analysis for wheat by Agrometshell model Agrometshell modeli ile buǧdayda geleceǧe dönük senaryolar ve risk analizi

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ÇAKMAK B., Şimşek O.

Tarim Bilimleri Dergisi, cilt.18, sa.3, ss.187-196, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 18 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1501/tarimbil_0000001207
  • Dergi Adı: Tarim Bilimleri Dergisi
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.187-196
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: AgroMetShell, Climate change, Food security, Water sufficiency index, Yield estimation
  • Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Climate change to be experienced within the current century and droughts significantly threatens the food security. Objective of this study is to estimate impacts of climate change on wheat production of Turkey by using AgroMetShell (AMS) model. Possible decreases in wheat production of the country were investigated by using future-proof scenarios and risk analyses with Water Sufficiency Index (WSI) values produced by AMS model. Also the possible use of AMS model of FAO in yield analyses and estimations were also investigated in this study. Entire estimations yielded a decrease in wheat yields. The highest decrease (18.2%) was observed in a scenario with 2 °C decrease in temperature, 20% increase in solar radiation and 20% decrease in precipitation. Seperate evaluations of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation revealed the highest decrease (6.5%) with 20% decrease in precipitation. Dual evaluations revealed the lowest decrease as 13.2% with 20% decrease in precipitation 20% increase in solar radiation. © Ankara Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi.