A stochastic approach to number of corona virus cases

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Unozkan H., YILMAZ M., Dere A. M.

JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS STATISTICS AND INFORMATICS, vol.16, no.2, pp.67-83, 2020 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 16 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.2478/jamsi-2020-0010
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS STATISTICS AND INFORMATICS
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
  • Page Numbers: pp.67-83
  • Keywords: Random walk, vanishing probability, stochastic process, stationary probability, Markov chain, GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTIONS, RANDOM MINIMA, MULTIVARIATE, PRESERVATION, ORDERS, MAXIMA
  • Ankara University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper introduces a stochastic approach to case numbers of a pandemic disease. By defining the stochastic process random walk process is used. Some stochastic aspects for this disease are argued before stochastic study is started. During random walk process modeling new patients, recovering patients and dead conclusions are modelled and probabilities changes in some stages. Let the structure of this study includes vanishing process as a walk step, some wave happenings like big differences about spread speed as a big step in treatment- an effective vaccine or an influential chemical usage- a second corona virus pumping with virus mutation, a second global happening which bumping virus spread are defined as stages. This study only simulates a stochastic process of corona virus effects.