Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES-TARIM BILIMLERI DERGISI, cilt.15, sa.3, ss.240-248, 2009 (SCI-Expanded)
Many parts of natural disaster have risen with climatologically and occur as flood. Floods, occurred in the coastal part of Turkey, may damage human life and property. As well as natural disaster, to design of urban drainage networks, transportation and hydraulic structures; it is very important to evaluate extreme precipitation for the management and estimation of probable floods. The extreme and longer duration rainfall amounts occur in the Eastern Black Sea coastal area. In this study, regional analysis of the annual maxima precipitation influenced on floods in Trabzon Province was tried to determine. For this purpose, annual maxima precipitation series of 10-78 years of 10 precipitation gauging stations over Trabzon province were used as a material. The stations in the Province have been assumed one region for the regional analysis and homogeneity tests, goodness-of-fit tests and regional quantile amounts were carried out in this way. Probability parameter estimation and regional analysis were used based on L-moments statistics. Annual maximum precipitation data were obtained as a hydrological homogeneous and the suitable regional distributions were selected Generalized Logistics, Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Normal and Pearson type 3, respectively. Probable precipitation amounts were estimated for 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 80%, 90%, 96%, 98% and 99% recurrence probabilities. In addition, some quantile functions were obtained through Monte Carlo simulation techniques. So, for flood management and the design of urban drainage networks, useful precipitation values were estimated for some quantile probabilities of the at-site and regional analysis for the Generalized Logistics and Generalized Extreme Value distributions obtained from simulation.