Prematurely declaring the Caspian tiger as extinct facilitated a missed opportunity to save this species

13. International Mammal Congress, Alaska, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, 14 - 20 Temmuz 2023, ss.46

The premature declaration of extinct species has been reported in different taxonomic

groups and is often called the Romeo’s error or Lazarus effect. In this study, based on

historical data and interview with local communities, we examine the case of the Caspian

tiger (Panthera tigris virgata) which we believe was declared globally extinct prematurely in

the 1950s. Given compelling evidence that we present about the presence of Caspian tiger

in Turkey until the early 1990s (about 40 years after the species was declared globally

extinct), it is reasonable to postulate that conservationists had missed a historical

opportunity to save the species. The case of the Caspian tiger demonstrates the cognitive

bias termed as the Dunning-Kruger effect in action and the potential implications for

conservation experts who are engaged in remotely evaluating species distributions. In order

to mitigate these factors when assessing the global status of threatened species, we suggest

that increasing awareness of such cognitive biases can facilitate the introduction of

additional measures in conservation initiatives and in IUCN's Red List assessments. For

example, establishing independent and specific teams to uncover implicit assumptions and

shortcomings of assessments and to question the group thinking of species assessors. In the

context of the current unprecedented rapid decline in biodiversity, we recommend that

researchers should be aware of cognitive biases involved in species assessments and

conservation at large.