Periodicity in precipitation and temperature for monthly data of Turkey

AKDİ Y., Unlu K. D.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, cilt.143, sa.3-4, ss.957-968, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 143 Sayı: 3-4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00704-020-03459-y
  • Dergi Adı: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, PASCAL, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Environment Index, Geobase, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.957-968
  • Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, we model and forecast monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation of Turkey by employing periodogram-based time series methodology. We compare autoregressive integrated moving average methodology and harmonic regression. We show that harmonic regression performs better than the classical methodology in both time series. Also, we find that the monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation have two different periodic structures of 6 months and 12 months which coincide with the seasonal pattern of the time series.