Sustainable water resources management under drought: scenario-based nonlinear optimization of cropping patterns in an irrigation scheme in Türkiye
Sustainable Water Resources Management, cilt.12, sa.5, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 12 Sayı: 5
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s40899-026-01393-x
- Dergi Adı: Sustainable Water Resources Management
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Compendex, Geobase, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Cropping pattern optimization, Cropwat, Drought planning, Irrigation governance, Nonlinear programming, Water economic productivity
- Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Sustainable irrigated agriculture in semi-arid regions increasingly requires crop planning according to water availability rather than only farmer preference or short-term profitability. This study develops a governance-aware, scheme-scale nonlinear optimization framework for drought-oriented crop planning in a centrally managed irrigation system in Türkiye. The model maximizes total net income by allocating crop areas and crop-specific irrigation-water depths under land, seasonal surface-water, crop-bound, and income-feasibility constraints. Two planning settings are evaluated: a flexible income-maximizing benchmark with selected dry-farming alternatives and a policy-constrained scenario with crop-area caps for diversification and institutional implementability. CROPWAT-derived deficit-irrigation response points were used to construct crop-specific water–income functions under historically observed drought conditions. The 2016–2022 diagnostic showed declining supply adequacy, with the Water Supply Ratio decreasing from 1.36 to 0.42. The flexible scenario generated higher income, whereas the capped scenario produced a more diversified crop pattern with a modest reduction in income and water economic productivity. KKT-based diagnostics and a piecewise-linear local-slope check supported the internal consistency of the optimized allocations. The findings indicate that optimization-based crop planning can support rule-based drought management in Water User Associations.