ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Özbek, LEVENT; Demirtaş, Hakan

doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and and Technology A- Applied Sciences and Engineering, cilt.22, sa.3, ss.239-259, 2021 (Hakemli Dergi)

Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
Cilt numarası: 22 Sayı: 3
Basım Tarihi: 2021
Doi Numarası: 10.18038/estubtda.840307
Dergi Adı: Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and and Technology A- Applied Sciences and Engineering
Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
Sayfa Sayıları: ss.239-259
Ankara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, cumulative and daily cases are estimated online using discrete-time Gompertz model (DTGM) and Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) based on the total COVID-19 cases between February 29-July 28, 2020 in USA, Germany, India, Russia, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Brazil. Employing the data collected between February 29 and July 28, 2020, it is showed that the DTGM in conjunction with AKF provides a good analysis tool for modeling the daily cases made using the in terms of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and $R^2$ .