Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS, cilt.70, sa.2024, ss.319-332, 2024 (SSCI)
Several countries rely heavily on imported
intermediate inputs for the manufacturing of their exported goods.
Understanding the implications of this reliance on a country's growth
performance is vital. To address this issue, we conducted an in-depth analysis
using the multi-sectoral balance-of-payments constrained growth model with data
from Turkey spanning 1970 to 2019. We used the autoregressive distributed lag
method to estimate sectoral export, final import, intermediate goods import, and
total import demand functions for five technology-based sectors. Subsequently,
we calculated growth rates using the multi-sectoral balance of payments
constrained growth models, factoring in the estimated income and price
elasticities, as well as the respective sectoral shares in total exports, total
imports, total final imports, and total intermediate goods imports. Our results
demonstrate that the multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth
model, which incorporates the impact of imported intermediate goods,
successfully predicts Turkey's growth path.
The findings indicate that structural changes in the production process
and the use of imported intermediate inputs have a positive impact on exports.
However, Turkey's significant dependence on imported intermediate goods during
the production process leads to a decrease in the multi-sectoral balance of payments
constrained growth rate