Periodicity in precipitation and temperature for monthly data of Turkey

AKDİ Y., Unlu K. D.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, vol.143, no.3-4, pp.957-968, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 143 Issue: 3-4
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00704-020-03459-y
  • Journal Name: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, PASCAL, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Environment Index, Geobase, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database
  • Page Numbers: pp.957-968
  • Ankara University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, we model and forecast monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation of Turkey by employing periodogram-based time series methodology. We compare autoregressive integrated moving average methodology and harmonic regression. We show that harmonic regression performs better than the classical methodology in both time series. Also, we find that the monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation have two different periodic structures of 6 months and 12 months which coincide with the seasonal pattern of the time series.