Determinants of COVID-19 cases and deaths in OECD countries

Tekerek B., Günaltay M. M., Özler G., Turgut M.

Journal of Public Health (Germany), 2023 (ESCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10389-023-01820-9
  • Journal Name: Journal of Public Health (Germany)
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, CINAHL, Psycinfo
  • Keywords: COVID-19, Health resources, Health expenditures, Noncommunicable diseases, HISTORY, WILL
  • Ankara University Affiliated: Yes


Aim: This research aims to examine the effects of variables that can affect COVID-19 deaths and cases in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the years 2020 (first wave), 2021 (vaccine available), and 2022 (vaccine available and Omicron variant appeared). Material and method: The factors that are thought to affect the case and death rates in 37 OECD countries were examined by multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS 22. The dependent variables were the COVID-19 deaths and cases per 10,000 (in 2020, 2021, and 2022); the independent variables were universal health coverage, physicians, nurses, intensive care beds, hospital beds, non-communicable diseases mortality per 100,000 people, population over 65 years of age, out-of-pocket expenditure, private expenditure, and health expenditure per capita and percent of % GDP. Results: It was determined that the non-communicable diseases mortality is the relatively important variable COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2020 and 2021. After controlling for the scores of other variables, according to the ß coefficients, a one-unit increase in the number of physicians variable increases COVID-19 cases by 1.14 units in 2022; a one-unit increase in the universal coverage variable decreases COVID-19 deaths by 0.33 units in 2022. Conclusion: The results of this research provide evidence that the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak have changed between 2020, the first wave of the epidemic, 2021, when the vaccine is available, and 2022, when both the vaccine is available and the Omicron variant is seen. With the increase in vaccination in 2022, the impact of non-communicable diseases mortality on the number of COVID-19 cases has decreased.